The trade impact of the coronavirus epidemic for India is estimated to be about 348 million dollars (approximately Rs 25 billion) and the country figures among the top 15 economies most affected as slowdown of manufacturing in China disrupts world trade, according to a UN report. Estimates published by United Nations Conference on Trade and Development on Wednesday said that the slowdown of manufacturing in China due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak is disrupting world trade and could result in a 50 billion dollar decrease in exports across global value chains.
Currency scarcity weighed on manufacturing performance where growth of new work flows slowed
The seasonally adjusted India Services Business Activity Index rose sharply from 34.2 in July to 41.8 in August, the highest since March, before the escalation of the pandemic.
The optimism in global markets could help India as the rebound in GDP is expected to continue and get more broad-based.
The Sensex ended down 134 points at 28,559 and the Nifty ended 35 points lower at 8,554
Factory growth picked up in May.
Inflation in India probably edged up in October as food prices climbed while weak demand is expected to have hurt factory output growth.
On the employment front, services employment was unchanged in April.
Growth concerns on China, which has already seen the yuan getting devalued twice in August, have rattled global financial markets, including that of India.
The biggest losers in the Sensex pack were Vedanta, Tata Steel, M&M, Tata Motors, Maruti, Hero MotoCorp, PowerGrid, Bharti Airtel, SBI and Coal India -- falling up to 4.48 per cent.
Indian economy is expected to grow 10.5 per cent or more in the current fiscal, Niti Aayog Vice Chairman Rajiv Kumar said on Thursday. Speaking at a virtual conference organised by the Public Affairs Forum of India (PAFI), he also said that modernisation of the retail sector is very much on the cards. "India Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for both manufacturing and services has shown a very smart uptick last month. "This (Indian economy) will strengthen even further," he said. "I expect Indian economy to grow 10.5 per cent or higher in FY 22," he noted.
'Retail investors have been selling since the Budget and Foreign Portfolio Investors started selling.' 'Thus far, domestic institutions have picked up the slack, buying enough to keep the major indices from falling off a cliff.' 'However, there has been carnage in smaller stocks and the financial sector has been hit much harder than the major market indices,' points out Devangshu Datta.
The HSBC Emerging Markets Index, a monthly indicator derived from the PMI surveys stood at 52.6 in March, little unchanged from the February reading when it stood at 52.4, indicating a subdued rate of economic growth in global emerging markets.
The NSE Nifty also moved up by 12 points to 8,648.35.
Stock markets are expected to remain under pressure this week due to the overhang of US presidential polls and uncertainty over global growth due to resurging cases of coronavirus, according to analysts.
The Nikkei India Services PMI posted above the critical 50.0 level, which separates growth from contraction, for the fourth month running in May.
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The HSBC Emerging Markets Index, a monthly indicator derived from the PMI surveys, sank to 50.6 in June from 51.3 in May, signalling the weakest increase in output since May, 2009.
The Nikkei India Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), which tracks services sector firms on a monthly basis, stood at 48.7 in January, as against 46.8 in December 2016.
Marking its quickest rise in over seven years, India's services sector activity expanded for the fifth successive month in February, tracking spike in business orders, renewed export demand and strengthening business confidence, a monthly survey showed on Wednesday. The IHS Markit India Services Business Activity Index rose from 55.5 in January to 57.5 in February. This is the fastest expansion in services output since January 2013.
Business confidence remained positive in August and was driven by upbeat forecasts of sales, an expected improvement in demand and promotional activities
The recovery in the Indian services sector was sustained in November as new work orders supported business activity growth and the first rise in employment in nine months, a monthly survey said on Thursday.
India's services sector activity surged to a seven-year high in January driven by sharp increase in new business orders, leading to job creation and business optimism amid favourable market conditions, a monthly survey said on Wednesday. The IHS Markit India Services Business Activity Index rose from 53.3 in December to 55.5 in January, signalling the strongest upturn in output in seven years.
India's services sector activity expanded at a slower pace in December as rates of growth in sales eased to a three-month low and staff hiring came to a halt amid weak business optimism, a monthly survey said on Wednesday. The seasonally adjusted India Services Business Activity Index fell from 53.7 in November to 52.3 in December. The index was above the critical 50 mark that separates growth from contraction for the third month in a row during December, but pointed to the slowest pace of expansion in the three-month sequence.
A reading above 50 indicates expansion while a one below this level means contraction.
The survey noted that advertising campaigns supported the increase in new work growth in the sector amid competitive pressures.
The upcoming general elections will be the focus and the economy and market performance will pivot around that event. The general consensus is that the India stock market should be up around 10 per cent by the end of the year.
Private sector output in India expanded for the first time in 8 months in February as slump in the services sector moderated and manufacturing grew at a stronger pace, an HSBC survey said.
'The large scale and widespread shrinking of the labour force in November, the peaking of unemployment in October and the fall in lead indicators in October and November point towards a worsening of the slowdown of the Indian economy in the third quarter of 2019-20,' says Mahesh Vyas.
Bumper liquidity as a result of global central bank stimulus measures should prevent a sharper downturn.
The services sector had slipped into contraction in July as confusion caused by the GST rollout triggered a dip in new business orders.
Service providers' confidence with regard to the 12-month outlook for business activity remained positive.
The upcoming corporate results season and the approaching Union Budget kept investors on their toes
Markets will remain closed on Thursday, 12 November 2015 on account of Diwali Balipratipada.
Manufacturing production growth eased in May, which combined with the slowdown in services resulted in a weaker increase in private sector output, the survey said.
Amid decelerating economic growth and falling industrial output, India's services sector has shown signs of promise in May recording the fastest pace of growth in the past three months, says an HSBC survey.
Bumper liquidity as a result of global central bank stimulus measures should prevent a sharper downturn.
A reading above 50 means the sector is expanding, while a reading below 50 means contraction.
Indian economy grew 7.9% in March quarter and recorded a five-year high growth rate of 7.6% for the 2015-16 fiscal
Manufacturing growth in India lost momentum in February.
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